NERC 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment

July 20, 2023

NERC’s 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA) identifies, assesses, and reports on areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American BPS for the upcoming four-month summer season (June – September). In addition, the SRA presents peak electricity demand and supply changes and highlights any unique regional challenges or expected conditions that might affect the reliability of the BPS.

Key Findings

Midcontinent ISO – The risk of being unable to meet reserve requirements at peak demand is lower than in 2022 due to additional firm support. MISO is expected to have sufficient resources for peak demand, however wind generator performance during periods of high demand is a key factor in determining whether demand is sufficient or if the need for external supply assistance will be needed.

NPCC New England – Anticipated resources in New England are projected to be lower than in 2022 but are expected to remain sufficient for meeting operating reserve requirements at normal peak demand.

NPCC-Ontario - Planned nuclear outage for refurbishment have reduced the electricity supply resources serving the province. Additionally, load growth is contributing to a constrained transmission network during high-demand conditions that may not be able to deliver sufficient supply to the Windsor-Essex area in the southwest part of the province. Extreme demand can lead to reserve shortages and a need to seek non-firm inputs.

SERC Central - Compared to the summer of 2022, forecasted peak demand has risen by over 950 MW while growth in anticipated resources has been flat. Demand-side management or other operating mitigations can be expected for above-normal demand or high generator-outage conditions.

Southwest Power Pool (SPP) - Reserve margins have also fallen in SPP as a result of increasing peak demand and declining anticipated resources. Like MISO, the energy output of SPP’s wind generators during periods of high demand is a key factor in determining whether there is sufficient electricity supply on the system. SPP may face challenges in meeting extreme peak demand.

Texas (ERCOT) - The area is experiencing strong growth in both resources and forecasted demand. ERCOT added over 4 GW of new solar PV nameplate capacity to the ERCOT grid since 2022. Additionally, load reductions from dispatchable demand response programs have grown by over 18% to total 3,380 MW. ERCOT’s peak demand forecast has also risen by 6% as a result of economic growth.

Other Reliability Issues


To reduce the risk of electricity shortfalls on the BPS this summer, NERC recommends the following:

If you need assistance with preparing your assessing and implementing these recommendations, please contact Nancy Walters. We offer a variety of services to assist clients with reliability monitoring that we can customize to your company needs. Contact us today.